{"id":998,"date":"2019-11-28T10:15:45","date_gmt":"2019-11-28T10:15:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/janbosch.com\/blog\/?p=998"},"modified":"2019-11-28T10:15:51","modified_gmt":"2019-11-28T10:15:51","slug":"when-you-dont-know-run-experiments","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/janbosch.com\/blog\/index.php\/2019\/11\/28\/when-you-dont-know-run-experiments\/","title":{"rendered":"When you don\u2019t know, run experiments"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Image by PIRO4D from Pixabay\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The effects of digitalization and other technological shifts cause companies to realize they need to change. This often leads to significant discussions in the organization as there typically are several alternatives being considered by different people. These might include topics such as business models, product implications, partnerships with suppliers and technology providers. Agreeing on the right way forward is difficult as it often is quite challenging to accurately predict the implications of changes to the way things are working today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the biggest dangers organizations encounter in this context is\n to end up in analysis paralysis. For every change that anyone in the \norganization might propose, one or more doom scenarios are presented by \nothers. The consequence is a fundamental deadlock where any change is \nimmediately torpedoed by a fear-driven organization where the \napocaholics always end up on top.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another typical pattern many organizations experience is when a team \nis assembled and locked up in a room, with the expectation that it will \ncome out with a proposal on how to proceed that\u2019s entirely based on the \nopinions of the people in that team. The challenge is that, in most \ncases, the opinions of the team members are based on the current state \nof the business and the historical events leading up to today. Although \nmany claim that history doesn\u2019t repeat itself but it most certainly \nrhymes, it seems that the changes many companies are faced with cannot \nbe predicted by extrapolating from the past. Rather, what\u2019s required is a\n belief in a future that hasn\u2019t yet arrived. And in order to be ready \nfor that future, the company needs to jump into the dark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The challenge with complex systems, including business ecosystems, is\n that it\u2019s often very difficult to predict the impact of changes. Small \nchanges can easily result in outsized effects due to implicit positive \nfeedback cycles. Also, changes may have no perceivable effect until a \ntipping point is reached where the scales swing over to the other end. \nBeing the storytelling machines that we are, many of us have \nexplanations on cause and effect that likely are wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although making a decision, even a bad one, is almost always \nbetter than failing to do so, it\u2019s still preferable to decide based on \ndata and evidence rather than based on beliefs and opinions. This is \nwhere I see many companies fall short in their processes: in virtually \nall situations, it\u2019s feasible to run experiments with customers or other\n stakeholders that provide actionable insights into the consequences of \ndecisions that are being considered. Many feel that it\u2019s impossible to \nexperiment with customers due to the effects it may have on brand, \nperception, customer relation or the current business. It often is \nforgotten that the alternative is to instill changes on the ecosystem \nwithout any evidence and to simply hope for the best.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, next time you\u2019re asked to make a decision, start by asking \nyourself if you have all the necessary information, evidence and data. \nIf the answer is negative, rather than making a blind decision based on \nopinions, ask yourself what the most informative, simplest-to-execute, \nlowest-impact and fastest experiment is that you could initiate to \ncollect the data you need to inform your decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some organizations may have a culture where admitting that you don\u2019t know is considered a sign of weakness. However, there\u2019s ample evidence of the consequences of poor decisions, ranging from features in products getting prioritized that never get used by users to entire companies that fail catastrophically. As I wrote in an earlier blog post<\/a>, you think you know, but you don\u2019t. Whenever you don\u2019t know, admit it and find a way to run experiments to figure out what\u2019s actually true and what\u2019s not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To get more insights earlier, sign up for my newsletter at\u00a0<\/em>jan@janbosch.com<\/em><\/a> or follow me on<\/em> janbosch.com\/blog<\/em><\/a>, LinkedIn (<\/em>linkedin.com\/in\/janbosch<\/em><\/a>) or Twitter (<\/em>@JanBosch<\/em><\/a>).<\/em> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The effects of digitalization and other technological shifts cause companies to realize they need to change. This often leads to significant discussions in the organization as there typically are several alternatives being considered by different people. These might include topics such as business models, product implications, partnerships with suppliers and technology providers. Agreeing on the … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"generate_page_header":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4,9,8],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/janbosch.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/998"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/janbosch.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/janbosch.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/janbosch.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/janbosch.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=998"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/janbosch.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/998\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1001,"href":"https:\/\/janbosch.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/998\/revisions\/1001"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/janbosch.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=998"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/janbosch.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=998"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/janbosch.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=998"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}